Retreat of glaciers in the Alps
Retreat of glaciers in the Alps
It is unlikely that climate warming will stop in the near future and as a consequence glacier retreat will continue. The large glaciers will retreat further from the valleys, and most smaller glaciers are bound to disappear (if they have not yet done so). By the year 2100 glaciers will probably only exist on the highest peaks of the Alps (> ~3500 m). Projections of future glacier evolution based on computer modelling have been made for the smaller glaciers (Huss and Fischer, 2016), as well as for some valley glaciers (e.g. Oerlemans and Keller, 2021). However, uncertainties in the projections are large. Much depends on the reliability of the climatological scenarios. Because complex models are used which deal with 'almost all' physical processes, we are inclined to overestimate the reliability of model results. The climate system exhibits internal variability on the scale of decades, which is hard to grasp. For instance, It is hard to judge if the 'central European amplification', partly related to a shift of the Azores high pressure system, will be a constant factor in the future or will damp out. Climate simulations with various models (starting in 1865) have shown that most of the models agree on the global signal and the polar amplification, but not on the (sub-)continental scale variations.
In spite of these uncertainties, there is no doubt that glacier shrinkage in the Alps and around the globe will continue, and probably intensify in the coming decades.
New landscapes are created by retreating glaciers and degrading permafrost, notably lakes and unstable slopes. This creates risks and challenges, and in fact here a new field of research emerges (Haeberli et al., 2019).
Abbildung: J. Oerlemans
References
Haeberli W, Oerlemans J and Zemp M (2019): The future of alpine glaciers and beyond. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 36 pp, DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/ 9780190228620.013.769.
Huss M and Fischer M (2016): Sensitivity of very small glaciers in the Swiss Alps to future climate change. Front. Earth Sci., 49 (34). doi: 10.3389/feart.2016.00034
Oerlemans J and Keller F (2021): Modelling the Vadret da Tschierva, Switzerland: calibration with the historical length record and future response to climate change. J. Glaciology, 67 (261), 1-10, https:// doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.82.